Is Moving Off VMware Really a Card on the Table? A CIO’s Guide to Migration vs. Renewal

In the first two parts of this series, I argued:

Going halfway with VMware Cloud Foundation (VCF) is the worst of both worlds, premium pricing, little ROI.

Even ESXi, the foundation, is underutilized, with most enterprises barely tapping its advanced features.

Now, Gartner forecasts that 35% of VMware workloads will migrate elsewhere by 2028. Broadcom’s licensing changes have forced every CIO to the same crossroad: renew and commit deeper to VCF, or invest real time in evaluating exits.

This isn’t a theoretical exercise. For many, the decision has already landed on the CIO’s desk with architects, finance, and business leaders waiting for direction.

The Fire CIOs Are In

Broadcom didn’t just change pricing; they changed the operating model.

vSphere-only deployments are no longer economical, VCF bundling is the default.
Third-party integrations (storage, networking) are harder to justify.
Licensing lock-in is structured to make “all-in VCF” the only ROI-positive path.

For CIOs, the fire is real:

Option A: Renew and standardize on VCF essentially betting your future on Broadcom’s roadmap.
Option B: Invest scarce time and talent into serious migration planning.
Option C: Do nothing and risk being squeezed harder in the next renewal cycle.

Each path has cost, risk, and political fallout.

How an Architect Approaches This Challenge?

A seasoned enterprise architect will look at the problem not as “VMware vs alternatives,” but as a workload placement problem.

Step 1: Application & workload inventory

Which workloads are VM-first, container-ready, or already SaaS candidates?
Which depend heavily on ESXi/VCF features (e.g., HA, FT, vMotion, DRS, SR-IOV, vSAN policies, Micro-segmentation)?
Which workloads are licensed per-core (Oracle, SQL Server) and could blow up costs if migrated incorrectly?

Step 2: Dependency mapping

Storage: vSAN/VxRail vs Dell/HPE/Huawei
Networking: NSX vs Cisco ACI
Security & compliance: encryption, vTPM, audit frameworks tied to ESXi.
Integration with monitoring/automation (Elastic, Splunk, Prometheus, Ansible).

Step 3: Business alignment

Which workloads directly impact revenue or customer experience?
What is the board’s risk appetite for migration downtime?
Which business units are pushing cloud-native adoption vs those locked in legacy?

Step 4: Cost modeling

Renewal cost of VCF vs cost of migration (tooling, consultants, downtime, refactoring).
TCO over 3–5 years, including staff retraining.
Opportunity cost: what innovation or AI projects get delayed while the team is busy “moving VMs”?

Step 5: Hybrid/exit strategy design

Retain VMware for critical regulated workloads.
Move dev/test and new workloads to containers or in-country / hyperscaler platforms.
Build skills in open-source observability, IaC, and AI infrastructure.

This is not just technology replatforming, it’s a full business architecture decision.

Real Questions CIOs Should Ask

Instead of jumping straight to “migrate or renew,” CIOs should pose sharper questions to their teams:

Feature Utilization: Are we really using 60 - 70% of the ESXi/VCF feature set, or just vMotion and HA?
Business Impact: If we move Core Business Systems, SAP HANA, Oracle RAC, or other critical workloads, what happens to SLA, performance, and licensing?
Talent Readiness: Do we have the internal skills for OpenShift, Nutanix, KVM, OpenStack or will migration simply swap one vendor dependency for another?
Strategic Timing: If Broadcom changed licensing this drastically once, what’s the probability it happens again in 2 years?
Opportunity Cost: Do we want our best engineers focused on migration for 18 months or on enabling AI, data platforms, and developer velocity?

Migration Brings FUD but Renewal Brings Lock-In

It’s tempting to view migration as full of FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) cost overruns, downtime, project risk. And that’s true. But a straight renewal of VCF isn’t “risk-free” either. It locks you into Broadcom’s model with little leverage to walk away later.

The deeper truth: both paths carry uncertainty. The CIO’s job is to balance which uncertainty the business can afford:

The execution risk of migration.
Or the long-term cost and flexibility risk of lock-in.

Should You Even Spend Time Evaluating Migration?

This is the elephant in the room. Some CIOs argue: “We survived this renewal. Shouldn’t we stop wasting cycles on migration planning and focus on AI and business outcomes?”

Here’s my take:

Yes, focus on AI and business value. That’s where differentiation happens.
But don’t ignore future planning. Even if you never pull the trigger, having a workload map and playbook keeps you in control.

Think of it like disaster recovery: you hope you’ll never need it, but when the pressure comes, you’ll be glad you didn’t start from zero.

The Pragmatic Path Forward

Audit now : know what you use in ESXi/VCF and what you don’t.
Segment workloads : classify by migration-readiness, risk, and business impact.
Keep optionality alive : pilot alternatives for dev/test or greenfield.
Educate the board : licensing shifts are not just “IT issues,” they’re financial strategy decisions.
Invest in future skills : platform engineering, Kubernetes, observability, AI pipelines.

The goal isn’t to abandon VMware tomorrow. The goal is to ensure on-one hold all the cards, the next time contracts come up except YOU.

Final Thoughts

For CIOs, the migration debate isn’t about being “for” or “against” Broadcom. It’s about preserving leverage, optionality, and alignment with business priorities.

Is moving off VMware truly viable in the near term or is doubling down on VCF the more rational path?
Should CIOs invest talent/time in migration planning now or focus exclusively on enabling AI and platforms for the business?
And perhaps most importantly, when Broadcom changed licensing so drastically once, what confidence do we have in what comes next?

The truth may lie somewhere in between: a hybrid path where some workloads migrate, some remain, and CIOs preserve optionality.

Broadcom changed the game. Whether you renew or migrate, don’t play blind.

This is the third article in my CIO series on VMware Cloud Foundation realities.

Next, I’ll explore exit frameworks, decision models and viable alternatives CIOs can use to evaluate whether moving beyond VMware is even a card on the table.

Written by Syed Waqar Uddin - Chief Cloud Architect specializing in platform engineering and cloud architecture.